Why a Historically Reliable Recession Indicator May No Longer Be Accurate
Wall Street’s most reliable recession indicator started signaling trouble in 2022 and hasn’t stopped since, but so far it has proven wrong every time. The yield on 10-year Treasuries has been lower than that of many shorter-term bonds, a scenario known as an inverted yield curve, which has historically preceded nearly every recession since the 1950s. Traditionally, an inverted yield curve suggests a recession within a year or two. However, not only has a recession not occurred, but U.S. economic growth remains stable. This has led many on Wall Street to wonder why this once-reliable indicator has proven wrong this…