Ukraine and US Fail to Finalize Rare Earth Minerals Agreement
On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.
Previously, Zelensky had expressed optimism that this “preliminary” agreement could pave the way for further cooperation. However, he confirmed that Ukraine had yet to secure any security guarantees from the US—one of his key demands. Trump, for his part, argued that such a deal would allow American taxpayers to “recoup their money” from aid provided to Ukraine during the war, but insisted that Europe should take primary responsibility for Kyiv’s security.
What Conditions Are in the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. This agreement proposed the establishment of an “investment fund” to aid Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.
Contentions Regarding Mineral Access and Financial Conditions
Tensions between Trump and Zelensky appear to have escalated over the specific terms of the minerals deal. Initially, the US sought a $500 billion claim on Ukraine’s mineral wealth, a demand that Zelensky rejected. Reports indicate that this request was later withdrawn.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has emphasized the financial aspect, stating on Tuesday that the US has provided between $300 billion and $350 billion in aid to Ukraine and that a minerals deal could help recover these funds. However, the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, estimates that actual US assistance amounts to $119 billion.
Does the Agreement Include Security Guarantees?
A key issue for Zelensky has been obtaining clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he affirmed that no such assurances had been secured.
“I sought a clause concerning security guarantees for Ukraine as it is vital,” Zelensky remarked.
When questioned about possibly abandoning the agreement without security assurances, he replied: “I aim for a NATO pathway or something comparable. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will operate.”
Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not conclude the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus on security assurances and devised a way to incorporate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, on the other hand, minimized the necessity of direct US security guarantees, asserting that these obligations should now fall to Europe. He mentioned that the involvement of American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has also asserted that Russia is amenable to the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this notion.
What is the Timeline for Signing the Agreement?
Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.
No agreement was signed, though. Instead, the meeting escalated into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one juncture, an irate Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US aid and cautioned that he was “risking World War Three.”
“You need to make a deal, or we’re out,” Trump reportedly told Zelensky. “You don’t have the leverage.”
In reply, Zelensky emphasized that “no compromises” could be made with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly afterward—well ahead of schedule—Zelensky left the White House. The White House then announced that the deal had not been finalized, with Trump himself canceling the signing ceremony.
Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and declaring: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
Currently, it remains uncertain whether the agreement will be signed or when it might occur.
Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts considerable deposits of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it possesses large reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals vital for military tech, wind turbines, and electronic devices—although the precise extent of these reserves is contested by some experts.
Adding to the complexity, certain mineral-abundant regions of Ukraine are presently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has indicated that mineral deposits with an estimated value of $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
Another obstacle to mineral extraction is the widespread presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that around 25% of Ukraine’s landmass is contaminated, particularly in the war-torn eastern regions.
There is also the issue of time. Even if the agreement is finalized, it could take years before the extraction and export of these resources yield tangible economic benefits.
“These resources are not sitting in a warehouse waiting for shipment—they must be developed,” Mylovanov explained. “If the US invests, it could ultimately benefit all parties.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet addressed the reported particulars of the US-Ukraine agreement. Nonetheless, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is willing to “provide” mineral resources to American companies for cooperative ventures, including extraction in Russia’s “new territories”—alluding to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin dismissed the potential US-Ukraine deal as insignificant, stating that Russia “undoubtedly has, I want to emphasize, significantly more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“As for the new territories, we are ready to attract foreign partners to develop these regions, which have returned to the Russian Federation,” he added.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday that the situation remains fluid: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”
